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The Honest Record

How our Greyhound calls actually performed · 1,025 settled races · Last 7 days
Today Last 7 days All time

Most tipping sites show you their winners and quietly forget the rest. We do the opposite: here's every call, scored against the result — including where backing blindly loses money. We'd rather you trust us than be impressed by us.

◎ Our Best Bets solid

Not every race — only the confidence plays we actually publish (the dominant-favourite calls on the Best Bets page and our Telegram channel), scored against the result. 425 sent live, 77 reconstructed from before the channel launched.

What we actually do: point you at the right races. Across all 1,025 races, blindly backing every favourite — versus following the 501 dominant-favourite races we actually flag as Best Bets.

WinPlace
Back every favourite, every race 43.7% 75.6%
Follow our Best Bets 53.1% 83.8%
The difference we make +9.4 pts +8.2 pts

Straight talk: that lift is better race selection, not better prices — we point you at the races where the favourite is genuinely solid, and tell you to pass the rest. No one profits flat-backing favourites to win (the market's too efficient, and on a level-stake win bet our published calls still run -15.0%). We show that because it's the honest, hardest test. The value isn't the flat win bet — it's knowing which races are worth your attention, a 84% place strike that anchors multis and exotics, and the discipline to pass the rest. Honesty over hype — every time.

These are the same confidence plays on the Best Bets page and broadcast free on Telegram. The full call — prices and stance — is on each race page for members.

43.7%
Market fav win
75.6%
Market fav place
-13.1%
Market fav flat ROI

"Market fav" = blindly backing the shortest-priced runner in every race (1,025 races) — the baseline our Best Bets are measured against above.

By race shape

Our call changes with the race. This shows whether each type of call held up — and the stance we give for it.

Dominant favourite solid we say back to win
Market fav: 422 races Win 57.6% Place 87.7% Flat ROI -11.6%
Our model pick: 422 races Win 57.3% Place 87.4% Flat ROI -12.1%
Today's dominant favourite races:
MANDURAH R9 10:32 PM › GOSFORD R11 10:42 PM › See all 4 today ›
Competitive fair we say win or place
Market fav: 279 races Win 42.7% Place 75.3% Flat ROI -6.4%
Our model pick: 279 races Win 39.4% Place 74.2% Flat ROI -10.8%
Today's competitive races:
TOWNSVILLE R13 10:39 PM › GOSFORD R12 10:58 PM ›
Weak favourite fair we say place or pass
Market fav: 172 races Win 26.7% Place 64.0% Flat ROI -28.1%
Our model pick: 172 races Win 27.3% Place 67.4% Flat ROI -24.0%
Open race fair we say place or pass
Market fav: 152 races Win 26.3% Place 55.9% Flat ROI -12.4%
Our model pick: 152 races Win 18.4% Place 51.3% Flat ROI -37.3%

Read it like this: on Dominant favourite races we say back to win, and those win most often. On Weak favourite and Open races we say don't back the favourite to win — so the low win rate there is the call working, not failing: we steered you to place or pass.

Model vs market accuracy. Across 7,226 rated runners, our model's probability error (Brier 0.1002) is a fraction behind the market's (0.0979). We don't beat the market on raw prediction — almost nobody does — which is exactly why our calls lean on race structure and discipline rather than claiming to out-pick the price.
Our pledge. We will never hide a losing run, cherry-pick a hot week, or claim an edge the numbers don't show. This page updates automatically from real results — good and bad. If a call type stops working, you'll see it here first.

Sample tags: noise under 40 · thin 40+ · fair 120+ · solid 300+ races.

Calls reconstructed from settled results using the same engine the site runs live. Flat ROI = level-stake (1 unit) win bet, scored on settled results. "Market fav" backs the shortest-priced runner every race; "Our pick" backs our model's top-rated runner where the race was rated. Past performance is not a guarantee. Not betting advice · 18+ · GambleAware.