‹ Home

The Honest Record

How our Greyhound calls actually performed · 895 settled races · Last 7 days
Today Last 7 days All time

Most tipping sites show you their winners and quietly forget the rest. We do the opposite: here's every call, scored against the result — including where backing blindly loses money. We'd rather you trust us than be impressed by us.

◎ Our Best Bets solid

Not every race — only the confidence plays we actually publish (the dominant-favourite calls on the Best Bets page and our Telegram channel), scored against the result. 373 sent live, 61 reconstructed from before the channel launched.

What we actually do: point you at the right races. Across all 895 races, blindly backing every favourite — versus following the 434 dominant-favourite races we actually flag as Best Bets.

WinPlace
Back every favourite, every race 41.7% 72.2%
Follow our Best Bets 54.6% 82.0%
The difference we make +12.9 pts +9.8 pts

Straight talk: that lift is better race selection, not better prices — we point you at the races where the favourite is genuinely solid, and tell you to pass the rest. No one profits flat-backing favourites to win (the market's too efficient, and on a level-stake win bet our published calls still run -12.1%). We show that because it's the honest, hardest test. The value isn't the flat win bet — it's knowing which races are worth your attention, a 82% place strike that anchors multis and exotics, and the discipline to pass the rest. Honesty over hype — every time.

These are the same confidence plays on the Best Bets page and broadcast free on Telegram. The full call — prices and stance — is on each race page for members.

41.7%
Market fav win
72.2%
Market fav place
-18.5%
Market fav flat ROI

"Market fav" = blindly backing the shortest-priced runner in every race (895 races) — the baseline our Best Bets are measured against above.

By race shape

Our call changes with the race. This shows whether each type of call held up — and the stance we give for it.

Dominant favourite solid we say back to win
Market fav: 364 races Win 57.1% Place 83.8% Flat ROI -12.9%
Our model pick: 364 races Win 57.1% Place 83.5% Flat ROI -12.9%
Today's dominant favourite races:
TAREE R11 11:00 AM › TAREE R12 11:15 AM › See all 25 today ›
Competitive fair we say win or place
Market fav: 242 races Win 40.1% Place 76.4% Flat ROI -12.2%
Our model pick: 242 races Win 38.0% Place 74.8% Flat ROI -14.5%
Today's competitive races:
TAREE R9 10:25 AM › TAREE R10 10:45 AM › See all 24 today ›
Weak favourite fair we say place or pass
Market fav: 169 races Win 26.6% Place 56.8% Flat ROI -28.0%
Our model pick: 169 races Win 32.5% Place 57.4% Flat ROI -9.4%
Today's weak favourite races:
BALLARAT R2 5:47 PM › BALLARAT R3 6:07 PM › See all 15 today ›
Open race fair we say place or pass
Market fav: 120 races Win 19.2% Place 50.0% Flat ROI -35.0%
Our model pick: 120 races Win 14.2% Place 43.3% Flat ROI -52.8%
Today's open race races:
Q1 LAKESIDE R1 5:20 PM › Q1 LAKESIDE R4 6:13 PM › See all 15 today ›

Read it like this: on Dominant favourite races we say back to win, and those win most often. On Weak favourite and Open races we say don't back the favourite to win — so the low win rate there is the call working, not failing: we steered you to place or pass.

Model vs market accuracy. Across 6,381 rated runners, our model's probability error (Brier 0.0995) is a fraction behind the market's (0.0977). We don't beat the market on raw prediction — almost nobody does — which is exactly why our calls lean on race structure and discipline rather than claiming to out-pick the price.
Our pledge. We will never hide a losing run, cherry-pick a hot week, or claim an edge the numbers don't show. This page updates automatically from real results — good and bad. If a call type stops working, you'll see it here first.

Sample tags: noise under 40 · thin 40+ · fair 120+ · solid 300+ races.

Calls reconstructed from settled results using the same engine the site runs live. Flat ROI = level-stake (1 unit) win bet, scored on settled results. "Market fav" backs the shortest-priced runner every race; "Our pick" backs our model's top-rated runner where the race was rated. Past performance is not a guarantee. Not betting advice · 18+ · GambleAware.